Excellencies, Generals, Soldiers of the Multinational Battlegroup in Latvia,
I
Latvia joined the NATO Alliance in 2004. At that time, eighteen years ago, we, Latvians, were developing our own self-defence capability. We were convinced that this – backed up by NATO membership would be enough to guarantee our security in the future. Events proved otherwise.
Russia has shown that it is prepared to use force for political objectives. The cyber-attacks on Estonia in 2007, the occupation of parts of Georgia after the brief war in 2008 and the occupation and annexation of Crimea and the conflict in Donbas since 2014 awakened old fears.
II
It became clear that membership in NATO on its own was no longer enough. That is why our Alliance acted swiftly and with determination to improve the self-defence capabilities of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia with the enhanced Forward Presence, the eFP. I warmly thank you to our reliable Allies from Canada, Albania, the Czech Republic, Iceland, Italy, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain who are here today to mark the 5th anniversary of this historic, Canadian-led multinational battlegroup in Latvia.
The eFP is historic in another sense: this is not simply a training mission but deterrence in operation. Most of our NATO Allies, including crucial contributions from the United States and Denmark, are part of the defence of our front-line states. That is a very powerful message of solidarity.
It demonstrates NATO’s determination to defend every one of our Alliance’s members. It also proves that we understand that a threat to anyone. Ally is a threat to us all, a threat to the principles and values that our Alliance is based upon and that we hold dear.
That is why Latvia and the other small Baltic states have participated in the operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. We have contributed to the missions in the Mediterranean, in Mali, and off the coast of Somalia and now have a company in Kosovo.
III
With Russia’s attack on Ukraine the security situation in Europe has changed fundamentally.
These changes are long-term.
They demand a reset in our thinking, and approach to the Allied defence posture, particularly in the Baltics.
Why the Baltics’ situation is special?
Because the Baltic States are small countries with small populations and, most importantly, with no strategic depth. There is only the sea behind us.
Yet the land border between the three Baltic States and Russia, Belarus and Kaliningrad is over 1600 km.
Even a defeat of Russia in Ukraine will leave Russia as a regional military superpower.
We must not give Russia any reason to doubt NATO’s solidarity, or our determination to defend every inch of NATO territory.
IV
Let us be clear: none of us wants to return to the Cold War. But today Russia’s war in Ukraine has proved that the concept of deterrence by punishment (the tripwire) is no longer sufficient for the Baltic States. After witnessing the events in Bucha, an approach based on retaking territory is no longer acceptable to Baltic and European societies. Therefore, we must move to a posture of deterrence and defence by denial.
V
For this we need a much more robust force structure based on the existing eFP forces which have already been increased.
At the moment of attack, we must have at least in-place forward deployed Allied brigades in each Baltic country.
These must be supported by rapidly deployable divisions, and – most important – divisional level enablers. I particularly thank Denmark for providing the bulk of the NATO divisional headquarters in Ādaži, and an infantry battalion in Latvia.
Enablers must include sophisticated air defence (thank you Spain for sending us NASAMs) with reliable command and control arrangements, to enable Allied air forces to establish immediate air supremacy.
This will also protect prepositioned arms and supplies from destruction.
There must be a deep strike capability to interdict enemy formations before they can be brought to battle, and attack helicopters, to destroy those who do get through. Many thanks to our American friends who exercise their Apaches in Latvia regularly.
I hope that in the NATO Madrid Summit, due at the end of June, we will take the decisions that will make our Alliance stronger and our individual countries safer.
VI
Allies, colleagues, friends,
Latvia continues to extend a warm welcome to you all. Be assured that we, in our turn, will fulfil our responsibilities. We have already decided to increase our defence spending to 2.5 % of GDP. We will continue to improve our military capabilities, as you will see. In the meantime, thank you for being here and enjoy your time in our beautiful country – Latvia.
God bless Latvia – Dievs, svētī Latviju!
