Good morning ladies and gentlemen,
On July 6 of this year in Warsaw, President Trump said the following:
“The fundamental question of our time is whether the West has the will to survive. Do we have the confidence in our values to defend them at any cost?”
This is indeed a vitally important question. If we agree that by “the West” President Trump was referring to Atlanticism, then two further questions arise. Firstly, what are our values; and secondly do we still share the same ones on both sides of the Atlantic or are the US and Europe drifting apart? Over the next few minutes I will try to answer these questions from a Baltic perspective.
So, what are our values?
In Europe, we would probably start with the enlightenment – the desire to combat the ignorance, myth, dogma and superstition inherited from the Middle Ages. Faith in reason and human rationality sought to replace tradition and pre-established institutions and thoughts. For example, the French thinker, Voltaire, considered man's desire to pursue one's happiness as inborn.
At the same time in north America the Declaration of Independence justified the independence of the United States not only by listing colonial grievances against King George III, but by asserting certain natural and legal rights, including a right of revolution. Arguably the most famous sentence in the English language begins with the words “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal” and lists “certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.” I think it would be fair to call these the values that Americans have held ever since and still hold today.
Then, how have European values developed? The latest version can arguably be taken from the Treaty of Lisbon which was signed by the EU member states in 2007 and entered into force on 1 December 2009. I quote: “The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights.”
If formally our values are so similar, why is it that we have the impression that the US and Europe are drifting apart? As this conference’s title suggests, we live in a time of change. The old certainties which held us together during two world wars, the creation of NATO and success in the Cold War seem to be in the past.
Now we face a host of new challenges ranging from severe financial crises and unpopular austerity to international terrorism, refugees and the resulting political populism. In addition, the value of free trade is under question, our democratic institutions are under attack in the modern information space and our infrastructure is under cyber-attack. Oh – and did I mention global warming – arguably the greatest challenge of this or any previous human millennium?
Reactions to these unprecedented challenges have, unsurprisingly, been different from country to country and between America and Europe. But, if we are honest, we must acknowledge that Atlanticism has not always been a smooth ride. Americans have often been reluctant to be drawn into the bloody world wars Europeans have started. Yet, in the end, we found that we could succeed and ensure that our values were victorious only by pulling together, that is: making Atlanticism work.
Even during the apparently single-minded response by NATO to the threat posed by the Soviet Union, there were severe disagreements such as over the deployment of theatre nuclear weapons to Europe in the late 1970s and 1980s. More recently there have been disagreements over a number of foreign policy issues. Through all this the value of the Alliance has never been seriously questioned.
The view from Latvia is from a slightly different perspective because we have only been members of NATO and the EU since 2004, so I would like to explain what Atlanticism means to us.
First, a bit of history. Next year Latvia, along with Lithuania and Estonia, will celebrate our 100 years of independence. But, of course, we have not enjoyed 99 years of independence since it was first proclaimed in 1918 because for nearly 50 years we were occupied by the USSR. In the period before World War Two, Latvia was a neutral country and a member of the ineffective League of Nations. With the USSR as our massive eastern neighbour, we took our security very seriously spending over a quarter of our total national budget on defence in 1938.
That was not enough to save our independence. The Molotov / Ribbentrop Pact of 1939 was swiftly followed by the Nazi / Soviet occupation of Poland and the destruction of other regional states. The Soviet occupation of the Baltic States in the same week of 1940 that Paris fell to the Nazis, hardly made the headlines.
That is why the Sumner Welles Declaration of July 23, 1940 is so important to us. In it the US condemned the occupation by the USSR of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, refusing to recognize their annexation as Soviet Republics. The Welles Declaration established a five-decade non-recognition of the Baltic states' annexation. It was literally a life-line for our countries which helped to keep the fire of freedom alive in Latvia and within the wide community of exiled Latvians. That is especially true here in the USA, where exemplary leaders like President Ronald Reagan gave us hope of freedom.
As the Soviet Union fell apart, America was among the first to help us morally and practically. More than anything else, without US support for our membership of NATO, this would have been impossible. As the geopolitical situation has developed, we have seen the vulnerability of the 81 million people caught between the eastern borders of NATO and the EU and the western border of Russia. We feel deep sympathy for Ukrainians as they continue to fight for their independence.
Membership of NATO matters more now than when we joined the Alliance. This could not have been possible without the support of America. That is why President Trump’s words in Poland are so important. He said: “… the United States has demonstrated not merely with words but with its actions that we stand firmly behind Article 5, the mutual defence commitment.”
Indeed, these are not just words. All of our NATO Allies have shown an understanding of the situation in which Poland and the Baltic States find ourselves. The historic Warsaw Summit with its commitment to enhanced Forward Presence, is crucial for our security and deterrence. That over 20 NATO Allies have committed troops to help us to defend ourselves is of huge political and symbolic importance. We are not alone, as we were in 1940.
At the same time, it is important to recognise the unique role that America plays in the Alliance. We are delighted with the seriousness that the US has shown about our concerns. The US battalion in Poland is excellent, but I would like to stress that a US footprint in the Baltic States is also essential if we are to send the right signals about our determination to deter and defend. This is particularly important as we watch Russian sabre-rattling on the other side of our mutual border during Exercise ZAPAD 17. We all know that many more than 13,000 troops are involved but Russia has decided not to declare them all.
In Warsaw President Trump also spoke about Europe, I quote: “A strong Europe is a blessing to the West and to the world. One hundred years after the entry of American forces into World War I, the transatlantic bond between the United States and Europe is as strong as ever and maybe, in many ways, even stronger.” But he also said: “Words are easy, but actions are what matters. And for its own protection …Europe must do more.”
So, what does Europe have to offer? Hard defence - that is clearly the role of NATO. The EU is much better at exercising soft power, especially against hybrid threats. Many US Presidents have urged Europe to pay our fair share for our defence. Poland and Estonia are already spending 2 or more percent of GDP on defence. In January, Lithuania and Latvia will join them.
But in a time of change it is equally important to identify new challenges and to try to deal with them before they become a security or defence issue. When this is backed by financial investment and/or limited military force, much can be done to prevent future threats developing. That is especially true when it comes to mass migration and terrorism, which frequently have a complex relationship. Equally, there can be no doubt that global warming will also have consequences for security during the coming decades. We must prepare for these new challenges and be prepared to support each other when necessary.
For this to be possible, Europe must do more to ensure that her armed forces keep up technologically and conceptually with the US. The global challenges of this time of change are not going to go away. They will affect us all including out of area. That is why both Europe and the US need reliable friends with the same set of values and aims.
So, let me return to the question: does the West have the will to survive. President Trump has said that “our own fight for the West does not begin on the battlefield -- it begins with our minds, our wills, and our souls.”I believe that we do have the necessary will to survive. We have been through much together and have recently proved our resilience by breathing new life into our old Alliance.
But I also believe that we will only succeed if we stick together. Latvia feels secure because it is within a strong NATO and an economically powerful EU. Progress in improving European defence coordination, especially in technology and procurement, is most welcome and has been outlined in the Paper on the Future of European Defence. But EU defence will never replace NATO. But it will, naturally, lead to closer cooperation between NATO and the EU - as we decided in Warsaw.
This synergy is vital for our trans-Atlantic success. Transatlantic partnership empowers both the US and Europe, particularly when facing new challenges. Our common history and our common values make this Atlantic cooperation natural if not easy. I am sure that these values will help to guide us to a common future for our children and grandchildren that we can all be proud of.
Thank you for your attention.